Author: Bozhidar Panov

What are the next medium-term levels of support and resistance to Bitcoin?

Today, the crypto market has returned to its previous trading ranges after the jump in volatility yesterday. Despite the sudden outbreak of volatility, the cryptocurrency market remains virtually unchanged on a daily basis. The total capitalization of digital assets in circulation amounted to $ 120.9B today versus $ 120B on Tuesday.

The main cryptocurrencies returned to their ranges after the weekend, when the update for Ethereum network upgrade failed to generate a change in price action.

The major cryptocurrencies are expected to fall today as investors’ sentiments have fallen as a result of a comment from Bank of England Senior advisor who said cryptocurrency is worthless because it fails to pass the fundamental tests of financial services. However, digital assets can restore the price beyond critical levels of resistance if Wyoming’s lawmakers attempt to pass a bill that recognizes digital currencies as money is approved.

Still, the bulls or bears will be able to overtake the crypto market in the short and long term?

Bitcoin’s price rose by nearly 1.60% over the past 24 hours. The first digital coin tested the critical level of $ 3 600 on Tuesday, but the resistance seems to be too strong for the bulls till now. Some crypto experts believe Bitcoin’s price recovery is limited due to the weak demand caused by the strong bear market in 2018.

But I think the year 2019 that is ahead of us will be essential to Bitcoin no doubt. After more than ten months of continuous fall, I think the next 12 months will be crucial for Bitcoin’s long-term future.

Everything seems ready for a big bounce when we talk about short and medium-term prospects. The nearest bull’s target in the event of a bounce is $ 4 120. This is where the price has already been rejected several times by EMA 200 on a weekly chart. Clear break and close over the weekly EMA 200 will indicate a strong upside momentum and may cause a big bullish rally. In this case, the next resistance is in the area of $ 4 750 – 4 900.

Again, watching the weekly chart, the MACD and RSI indicators look good for the bulls. RSI touches the level 30 and is ready to pick up an upside impulse while there is a large bullish divergence on the histogram of the MACD.

In the long run, however, we still do not have strong signs of reversing the main trend. And the predominant trend remains a downside. If bears return control, the first medium-term target is in the area at the bottom of mid-December at $ 3,158. A clear break below this zone will send a very negative message to the market, and the $ 2,000 region will be the next goal.

Author: Silviya Velcheva


* The views expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation or advice for the purchase or sale of cryptocurrencies in the digital assets market or other financial instruments. The predicted forecasts meet the expectations of the author of the material and may not materialize. Trading in currencies, contracts for differences on margin or cryptocurrencies poses a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past results are not a guarantee of future success.

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The bears took control again, lowering the price of cryptocurrencies

The crypto market falls again with Bitcoin and all the significant altcoins on the red territory. The total capitalization of digital assets in circulation declined from $ 124 billion to $ 121.4 billion on Wednesday. It seems that the short-term recovery is already over. And the market resumed its downside trend against of the lack of fresh, positive drivers.

TRON (TRX) is one of the most losing coins. The cryptocurrency lost nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $ 0.0237 at the time of my writing. The scandal around the TRON Accelerator contest is gaining momentum and seems to create additional downside pressure on the coin.

A more significant loss, however, was realized yesterday by Ethereum, collapsing by 20% in the last seven days. The Smart Contract Audit, performed by ChainSecurity, revealed critical vulnerability to the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1283. The weakness has been called the ‘Re-Entry Attack’. It allows hackers to re-enter the same feature multiple times without notifying the user. This is a dangerous loophole that can lead to the update being introduced, leading to theft of the cryptocurrency. As a result, developers decided to postpone the update for an unspecified period.

ETH/USD is currently trading at $ 120.02, down 5.90% yesterday. Although the downside pressure is gaining momentum, the coin still holds the third place at market value. And the Constantinople’s delay may increase the bearish pressure during the European session.

On the other hand, Ripple is quite stable at $ 0.3250. The coin has been unchanged since the start of the day and has declined by only 0.79% on a daily basis. The price action of XRP depends on the overall sentiment of the crypto market, although it has recently been less volatile than other significant altcoins.

The price remains closed in the trading range between 0.3157 – 0.3353, which we see during the last five sessions after the deep decline on January 10th.

The upward momentum of XRP/USD is limited by the downside trendline outlining the fall of 6th November 2018. The bulls were rejected in every attempt to break it – in November, December, and most recently on January 10th.

Over the current price, the first resistance is at $ 0.3353 (the upper limit of the range). The second resistance level is $ 0.3435 (daily SMA50). XRP/USD bulls need to break the $ 0.3400-0.3500 area to see an increase of the upside momentum to the psychological level $ 0.36. But to get it, XRP/USD will first have to break SMA100 and SMA200.

On the downside, the first support is seen at $ 0.3200. If the price can make a clear break below that level of support, the bulls will lose all momentum, and the pair will enter a strongly downward environment. In that case, the bears should head to testing the support of $ 0.3108 (the bottom of the range from Monday), followed by 0.2866.

Author: Silviya Velcheva

* The views expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation or advice for the purchase or sale of cryptocurrencies in the digital assets market or other financial instruments. The predicted forecasts meet the expectations of the author of the material and may not materialize. Trading in currencies, contracts for differences on margin or cryptocurrencies poses a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past results are not a guarantee of future success.

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Ethereum in lethargy before Constantinople

The crypto market remains on the green territory with the vast majority of the top-20 coins that have shown a positive momentum in the early Asian hours. The weekend rally, which pushed Bitcoin above the critical $ 4,000 price, improved the market sentiment. However, consolidation at the beginning of this week may signal that the bulls are not yet ready for a decisive upside move.

From a fundamental perspective, it may take time for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve Bitcoin’s ETFs, with the temporary shutdown of the government also exerting its negative influence. However, Japanese regulators are already considering an Exchange traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s coin celebrates its 10th birthday, and an ETF would be a good gift. And the charts show that the main cryptocurrency has some room to move one step up.

Another positive factor in the crypto market is the modernization of the Ethereum network. The new protocol, also known as an upgrade under the name Constantinople, is scheduled for January 16th. And the current king of the Altcoins manages to hold his recent gains.

Constantinople is a hard fork. The fork will take place at 7,080,000 blocks, which means that all client applications with full node support will be refreshed at this time and will start the new version of the protocol to avoid multiple forks.

Unlike the recent poor organization with Bitcoin Cash, which has led to a messy, hard fork, the Ethereum community has no inconsistencies regarding the upcoming changes. Still, however, this may lead to a period of uncertainty and create some risks for active traders. Can we see a further rise in the price?

Currently, Ethereum is traded around $ 150 or a 2% increase over the past 24 hours. However, the downside retreat on Monday suggests that the bears are again working to stop the crypto currency’s recovery rally. So, in my opinion, it is quite possible to see continued consolidation shortly, while bears continue trying to push the price to pre-Christmas levels.

If the bulls manage to gain momentum, the next level of resistance is at $ 161.25, where the 100-day moving average on the daily chart is located, near to the high of Sunday.

A clear break above this level should trigger a further rise to testing the resistance around the round $ 170 level.

On the downside, the first support is seen at $ 137.06, where the average line of Bolinger Bands is located on the daily chart. A clear break and convincing movement below it will send the price downside to testing the daily MA-50 around $ 117.60.

Author: Silviya Velcheva


* The views expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation or advice for the purchase or sale of cryptocurrencies in the digital assets market or other financial instruments. The predicted forecasts meet the expectations of the author of the material and may not materialize. Trading in currencies, contracts for differences on margin or cryptocurrencies poses a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past results are not a guarantee of future success.

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The market recap for the cryptocurrencies in 2018

In 2018, there were a number of events that affected the sentiments of the crypto market, supporting bears in most months, if not throughout the whole year. The oldest cryptocurrency suffered huge losses in 2018, dropping from the highest levels in December 2017 of $ 20,089 to the low $ 3,200 in December. And Ethereum even posted greater losses of -82.4%.

Here are some of the decisive events during the year:

• Japanese and South Korean regulators have taken action and imposed new requirements for crypto investors and exchanges, which led to a particularly unstable first half of the year.
• Continued the hate of China for cryptos, with the government banning investment abroad. In 2017 the government banned local ICOs.
• The SEC refused and then announced a review of its decision to refuse Bitcoin’s 9 ETFs.
• Following its summit in the summer, the G20 announced its intention to introduce a single set of rules and regulations for the crypto market. Ultimately, this was postponed until the summer of 2019, and while the delay would traditionally be positive in the market, this delay weighed on the SEC decisions for the ETFs.
• The Bitcoin Cash hard fork delivered unwanted market turmoil late in the year.
• More than $ 1 billion was stolen by the crypto exchanges during the year, with North Korea believed to be particularly active in the game.
• The SEC issued a statement earlier this year that only Bitcoin and Ether would not be classified as securities, categorizing all other cryptocurrencies as securities. Therefore, if ICO is not registered, it is considered illegal.
• The Token Taxonomy Act of 2018 was announced in December and can solve the problems faced by entrepreneurs who want to start through ICOs. This law seeks to classify cryptos as non-securities. But Congress will still have to vote for it …

Now when 2018 has passed, I suppose the questions “Will Bitcoin recover next year” or “Will Bitcoin reach to $ 2,000” are the most popular among the crypto community. Let’s shed some light on the future of the cryptocurrencies in 2019.

Among the many reasons for this bear market, analysts look at the fear of high taxes on digital assets. After Donald Trump signed the tax plan that made all of the crypto assets taxable, investors lost confidence in their own digital currencies, and this led to the sell-off of the entire market.

Ironically, the big banks see Trump’s actions as a major factor that will raise Bitcoin’s price higher in early 2019. After confronting the possible impeachment (yes, that is possible), Trump could have trying to gain public sympathy from declaring crypto-tax cuts. According to analysts, he has kept this ace in his sleeve for a long time after investing in Bitcoin back in 2017. He can plan crypto and block technology to make the ideal basis for trade relations between the US and other countries. This is why the Bitcoin price is expected to rise to $ 10,000 in February-April 2019.

However, happiness may not last long. According to the latest news, Iran, one of the countries accepting crypto, plans to use them to avoid US sanctions in June 2019. They will follow the approach of Venezuela and create their own currency backed by the price of crude oil. Iran will use it instead of the US dollar to conduct oil operations. If Iran does this, the US president may be disappointed. His further comments and actions are likely to drive Bitcoin to about $ 6,000.

In the short term, Bitcoin has started the 2nd day of the year in red, after another failure to break $ 4,000. This is likely to weigh later in the day. For the upcoming day, if the price could hold above $ 3,910, it would support a return to the high in the morning at $ 3,980 before the test again to $ 4,000. A clear break above that level will open the door to the next resistance around 4 100.

Failure to hold above $ 3,910 may send Bitcoin bears to testing $ 3,800.

 

Author: Silviya Velcheva

* The views expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation or advice for the purchase or sale of cryptocurrencies in the digital assets market or other financial instruments. The predicted forecasts meet the expectations of the author of the material and may not materialize. Trading in currencies, contracts for differences on margin or cryptocurrencies poses a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past results are not a guarantee of future success.

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